Black Mirror S7E2 - Empress of the University: Complacency and Luck in a Sortino 0 Trade

How Maria Took a Chance at a binary outcome trade and turned her position around - how the clean execution, luck, and opponent, Verity's complacency played a role in it.

Verity, a genius who developed a machine to bend reality to her will, came back at Maria for revenge because she started a rumor about her in high school.

Verity's plan was to slowing making Maria lose her mind by altering everyone's reality but hers, so that she'd have different memory and perception of what the reality should be like, making everyone think she's insane.

The Path

Maria lost her job on day 5 and decide to track down Verity to her house and confirm her suspicion that Verity altered the reality with the pendant on her neck.

She

• broke into Verity's house
• stole the pendant
• hid under the bed and tried to use it but failed and got caught

Complacency

Verity didn't think too much about protecting herself from any kind of harm even if it's just one voice command away.

She mentioned that she tried becoming the Empress of the Universe and got bored.

After catching Maria hiding under her bed, she didn't take any defensive measures and instead took time to explain how the pendant works (only with her fingerprint), giving Maria time to plan a strike back.

Maria fought back but failed, Verity called the cops, who appeared immediately and ordered Maria to surrender.

The Sortino 0 Situation

Sortino was 0 because Maria has unlimited downside risk, which is dead by the cops or by Verity. She has a very limited window to fight back while Verity is still complacent, thinking that Maria was gone for good.

The Execution - digging herself out of the hole

I thought that too, until Maria grabbed the one of the cops' gun and shot Verity in the head with 0 hesitation. The execution was extremely clean. Now she can only die by the cops.

She either die fighting or go to jail. She fought the cops, took control of the pendant and won (this was where luck played a major role). Now the Empress is Maria and she owns the cops.

Besides luck, the execution was extremely good. Most people would freeze up when the fast-changing situation and emotions overwhelmed them. Maria didn't. She took the gamble and won. It was not hinted earlier in the show but she seems to know how to use a gun effectively, even in times of stress.